The following articles express the thoughts of the future generation of Doctors of Post-Science...
(1) Intellectual Properties for Sale - - Permanent Integer ID Number (By Christopher Tseng edited by HC) with Frequently Asked Questions posed by Emilio Vallejo answered by CYL
(2) Why Should Inflation Be Controlled ? Economists are afraid of inflation, but only the Infinite Spreadsheet can explain its real danger (By C. Y. Lee Edited by Hugh Ching)
(3) Infinite Spreadsheet Stock Investment - - Prediction Based on Invariance of Rate of Return (by C. Y. Ching, edited by HC)
(4) Infinite Spreadsheet Applications: Planning, Valuation, and Decision Systems (by C. Y. Lee and edited by HC)
(5) Post-Science Buddhism (By Emilio Vallejo (nicknamed "Super Genius") edited by CYL and a second article serving as a comparison of pre-science and post-science, unedited, but commented, by HC)
(6) Research Notes On Infinite Spreadsheet Stock Valuation System (By Mahmud Zaman)
Intellectual Properties for Sale - - Permanent Integer ID Number
By Christopher Tseng edited by HC
Selling intellectual properties is fast becoming a common practice. Post-Science Institute has pushed knowledge far beyond current knowledge dominated by science. From post-science, one of the most fundamentally useful intellectual properties is all the distinct integers used as unique names for entities with long useful lives. Most of the intellectual properties today refer to patents and copyrights, not distinct integers. But, giving distinct permanent names to permanent entities, such as knowledge, is the first step in automating the huge, or even unlimited, volume of these entities. These so-called Permanent Integer ID Numbers are an extension of the Permanent Software patented by Post-Science Institute. Names composed of distinct integers, when processed by the Permanent Software, becomes Permanent Integer ID Numbers. The fundamental idea behind Permanent Integer ID Numbers is that the Permanent Integer ID Numbers are used to represent all the technical barriers in computer usage, and the Permanent Software is used to make the Permanent Integer ID Numbers "permanently invisible" to the computer user, like magic - - one of the greatest in the universe !
The Permanent Software, as disclosed in the patent "Completely Automated And Self-generating Software System" (Pat. No. 5,485,601), which enables its users to retrieve an unlimited amount of information, deals with low-digits integers, such as binary, Hexadecimal, DNA with three digits and a base of four etc. Permanent Integer ID Numbers or Permanent Numbers (PN) extends the number of digits, theoretically, to infinity. The commonality of the two concepts dealing with permanent entities is based on the realization that integers are the native language of machines or computers. Conceptually, integers can be considered General Logic, which, in the form of Rad Theory, not Set Theory, should be the foundation of mathematics simply because even machines can understand it directly. Set Theory, on the other hand, depends on the human's associative memory, which is a very high-level intelligence.
For its discovery of the Permanent Software, which opens the possibility of mankind's self-creation, for DNA is a permanent software, Post-Science is rewarded with the intellectual gold mine of Permanent Integer ID Numbers. When Permanent Integer ID Numbers are kept distinct by Post Science Institute, by selling them just once, and permanent by the Permanent Software, they are conceptually identical to real properties, which are characterized by their uniqueness and permanence. The time has come for knowledge in the form of intellectual properties to take center-stage in business. Here, we have one of the simplest intellectual properties for sale. Further information on how to purchase Permanent Integer ID Numbers are given in the Post-Science web site: http://post-science.com.
Frequently Asked Questions from Emilio Vallejo Answered by C. Y. Lee
Emilio Vallejo asks about Permanent Numbers: I was a bit confused on the permanent ID #'s. My question is, does it HAVE to be intergers or can there be characters too? And if we can use characters too does it have case sensetivity like a linux password? I think if people were to adopt permanent id #'s they would want it to reflect who they are somehow. Like user names on the web. For example I personaly would like some id # like EmiNinjax5 or 50xGenius... Something that is not as monotonous as a ssn 554-32-3233 or Drivers license B5879848. I mean characters do have a numercal value in the 01010101 language? I just think that if someone had a pemanent ID # in 2554 it would be something like: 321564323540324302132454685798421324560213215403213218435024132406586 thus making it a bit difficult to remember. Yes, computers can calculate far beyond the human scope but, if the human can't remember what input to give the computer...
CYL replies: Post-Science is about 1500 years ahead of science with its plan of Self-manufactured robots. Its life science is about 1000 years ahead. Life science, with 500 variables, is two orders of magnitude more complex than science, with 5 variables) and need the rigor of logic. Integers are general logic. They are the native language of the machine. Integers can be symbolically represented by numbers or alphabets, such as in hexadecimal (0-9 A-F).
Most current serial numbers or English words have (internal) meanings, which generally make the use of integers inefficient and often non-distinct. All the Permanent Integer ID Numbers (official search name) are created equal; they should not have meanings, except as the impartial representations of entities. Humans must respect machines and treat them as cooperating partners, in order to communicate with them effectively. Basically, machines speak in integers, as humans, in human language. Humans and machines are connected by the Universal User Interface (UUI) of the Permanent Software.
The computer, the intelligent machine, uses RAM, Random Access Memory. Humans have been purposely created with Associative Memory (apples are associated with oranges as fruits). The Associative Memory allows humans to access an unlimited amount of information, as in the computerized library search system, or in the Permanent Software through the UUI. While we go down a tree-structured UUI, the human can associate the choices and the machine needs to have the Item Numbers to manage the information. The ultimate destination of the UUI is an Address, which should be an integer in order for the machine to handle easily. These Addresses will be the invented Permanent Integer ID Numbers. In the Permanent Software, these Addresses have been made invisible to the user. Any computer language can handle at least 16-digits decimal numbers (Credit Card Number).
All of the above satisfy the rigor of logic. Today, in order to sell a software product, the tendency is to make the software as friendly as possible to the user, almost totally neglecting the computer. Machines need integers or a foundation of general logic. At the DNA level, humans are machines. DNA is made up of 3-digits number with a base of 4, from which contains the wisdom of the whole universe !
Post-Science Buddhism is life science. I am glad you dare to write about it. If we can do life science, we should not waste time on social science, or even less on science. Therefore, the business of Permanent Integer ID Numbers should be our highest priority, for it is the beginning of the Age of Life Science, with the creation of the permanent and distinct integer names for all entities.
Why Should Inflation Be Controlled ?
Economists are afraid of inflation,
By C. Y. Lee Edited by Hugh Ching
but only the Infinite Spreadsheet can explain its real danger.
Because Inflation Rate must satisfy the requirement:
%Return > %Interest > %Inflation
(Rate of Investment Return greater than Interest Rate; Interest Rate greater than Inflation Rate)
(1) Investors must borrow money at an interest rate lower than the rate of return in order to make profit on the borrowed money.
(2) Lenders must loan money at an interest rate higher than the inflation rate in order to make a real profit (profit after deduction for inflation).
(3) For the stock market, the price and all the expected future financial factors are given, except the rate of return. The rate of return can only be calculated as the final variable in the Infinite Spreadsheet, in which all the financial factors are related in a mathematically consistent fashion. The calculation takes about 10,000 iterations.
(4) The Infinite Spreadsheet calculated rate of return, which is the only remaining unknown in the stock calculation, shows empirically the approximate time-invariance of the rate of return. It also shows that even when the irrational investors seem to observe the time-invariance of the rate of return. The irrational stock market provides for Dow Jones 30 with three levels of time-invariant rate of return, namely, around and below 5% for low growth companies, around 10% for medium growth companies, and around and over 15% for high growth companies, due mainly to the use of indicators, such as Price/ Earning Ratio, which cannot take into consideration of the future growth rate.
(5) Milton Friedman empirically verified the time-invariance (though spatial variant) of the Velocity of Circulation (V) of the Broad Money Supply (M2) in the equation Price x Quantity = V x M2. There should be an intensive effort to theoretically verify the invariance of the Velocity because the control of inflation is the coarse tuning of the economy and is at the foundation of economic stability, while correct valuation by the Infinite Spreadsheet is just the fine tuning of the economy. Friedman, by empirically verifying the time-invariance of the Velocity of Circulation of the Broad Money Supply, shows how to control inflation, and the Infinite Spreadsheet, by empirically verifying the time-invariance of the rate of return on stock investment, provides the logical reason why inflation must be controlled. For his contribution to the control of inflation, which has been the main cause of major wars, Friedman deserves a Peace Prize, signifying the sustainable contribution of knowledge to peace. Friedman's equation cuts both ways; it can be used to control inflation and it could be used to explain the causes of the 1929 Great Depression, the 1980s Japanese Depression, and even the current stock market disaster, as the excessive use of the equation to control the stock market. As Friedman aptly puts it that the Fed is a "loose cannon on the deck" and, when it tries to control the stock market, it causes the economy "to skid into a ditch. In 2000, Alan Greenspan stepped on the brakes, and the economy is probably in the ditch now."
Conclusion: The rate of return sets an upper limit on how high the inflation can be allowed. The rate of return is relatively stable comparing to the inflation rate and is an approximate time-invariant quantity.
Infinite Spreadsheet Stock Investment - -
(by C.Y. Ching, edited by HC)
"What Goes Up Must Come Down"
Prediction Based on Invariance of Rate of Return
refers, not to the stock price, but to the rate of return,
according to the survey of the Infinite Spreadsheet,
as exemplified by Intel (INTC):
9.17%(3/03/2); 8.54%(3/10/2); 9.44%(3/17/2); 9.50%(3/24/2);
9.50%(3/31/2); 9.69%(4/07/2); 9.82%(4/14/2); 10.40%(4/21/2);
11.56%(4/28/2); 11.56%(5/05/2); 10.00%(5/12/2); 9.66%(5/19/2);
9.85%(5/26/2); 9.94%(6/02/2); 11.36%(6/09/2); 11.76%(6/16/2);
13.94%(6/23/2); 14.18%(6/30/2); 13.05%(7/07/2); 14.27%(7/14/2);
12.78%(7/21/2); 13.58%(7/28/2); 14.50%(8/04/2); 13.33%(8/11/2);
12.33%(8/18/2); 13.06%(8/25/2); 14.13%(9/01/2); 12.82%(9/08/2);
11.60%(9/15/2); 12.82%(9/22/2); 13.14%(9/29/2); 11.56%(10/06/2);
9.95%(10/13/2); 10.18%(10/20/2); 9.68%(10/27/2); 9.47%(11/03/2)
The Infinite Spreadsheet captures the infinite reality, particularly, the stock market in its entirety. The stock market supplies all the inputs, including the price, except one final remain variable, the rate of return on investment. The rate of return can intuitively be assume to be an approximate time-invariant quantity because it reflects the long-term stable characteristics of, in addition to the economy, mainly the company which should be relatively stable in the short-run. Its time-invariance has empirically been found to be plausible. When the stock rate of return is higher than the normal time-invariant rate of return, either the price has to rise or the earning has to fall to bring the rate of return back to normal. For rational stock investments based on the fundamental financial factors, there are generally four possible scenarios relating to the three factors in the stock market: (1) Earning estimate, (2) Price, and (3) Rate of return. When the rate of return is abnormally high,
1. When price and earning both going up: The best condition to BUY stock
2. When price going up and earning going down: Short-term buy to capture small profit which we do not recommend because the stock price will eventually go down with the decreasing earning.
3. When price going down, earning going up: Observe for buying because price depreciation instability has to stop.
4. When price and earning both going down: Uncertain period. If rate of return is lower than normal, short stocks.
All the above four possibilities are based on accuracy of earning estimate, which should be the responsibility of the SEC and the CEO of the company. When all the investors invest rationally based on the Infinite Spreadsheet, the stock market should be permanently stabilized.
Infinite Spreadsheet Applications:
(by C. Y. Lee and edited by HC)
Planning, Valuation, and Decision Systems
The Infinite Spreadsheet is a spreadsheet which establishes a mathematically consistent relationship among all the factors affecting the price in a time space extending to infinity. It is a mathematically deterministic system in which the number of equations equals the number of unknowns. Thus, it constrains our freedom of behavior by allowing us to choose all but one last variable, which has to be determined by the deterministic Infinite Spreadsheet. In other words, it is a non-violable law of nature in social science based on mathematics, which is more rigorous than science, which is based on empirical verification. All the variables in the Infinite Spreadsheet can be classified into three categories: (1) Earning estimate; (2) Rates of return; and (3) Prices.
When the user can assign values to all the variables, the Infinite Spreadsheet is used as a Planning System, such as in a business plan and a planned economy or a social security system. Frightening as it may sound, Karl Marx has the right idea about economic planning, but he has the wrong solution of planning which is based on the finite spreadsheet, not the Infinite Spreadsheet. The correct Planning System should take into consideration all the factors affecting the plan to infinity in time and space and should be done not just by one central authority, but also by all the individual participants in the Planning System. Furthermore, the Planning System must be recalculated using the Infinite Spreadsheet whenever there is a significant change in the future expectation. It is really the free market system with all the market participants, including the government, making sure that all the relevant factors satisfy the law of nature defined by the Infinite Spreadsheet.
In real estate or business valuations, where the earning estimate is given, it is customary to assign the rates of return in the determination of the price. The rate of return can be reasonably assumed to be an approximate time-invariant quantity and, thus, can be obtained from the market comparison of past data. Here the Infinite Spreadsheet is used as a Valuation System. A quantitative supply and demand model for multiple commodities with similar functionality and with a uniform price can be constructed by summing over the quantities whose various prices are determined individually by the Infinite Spreadsheet. In turn, the quantitative model can be used to obtain the inputs for the Infinite Spreadsheet, with which the entire Valuation System forms a new quantitative foundation for economics and ushers in a new age of social science.
In the stock market, where both the earning estimate and the price or quote are given, the only remaining variable to be determined is the rate of return. Here the Infinite Spreadsheet is used as a Decision System, because the calculated rate of return should be the rational criterion for decision making in stock investment. With the price being determined by the market through supply and demand and when the earning estimate is sufficiently accurate, the Decision system should be able to predict the movement of the stock market or even to dictate the stock market when the Infinite Spreadsheet is used by a sufficiently large number of investors. The Decision System puts the claim of the time-invariance of the rate of return to the test. When the Infinite Spreadsheet is popularly used, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and should permanently stabilize the stock market. A stable stock market will be able to draw the right amount of private investment to fuel the engine of technological progress in our society. The commercially available Infinite Spreadsheet Stock Decision System is a completely automated software system; it can calculates a stock rate of return in just several seconds after going through a price-return double iterative loop involving around 10,000 iterative calculations. It could be considered one of the greatest achievements of the human intellect.
By Emilio Vallejo (nicknamed "Super Genius") edited by CYL
Knowledge is not mature until it becomes a religion. The most advanced religion today is science, which, however, is very limited in scope in comparison to the traditional religions. Post-Science is not yet a religion because it still has to mature. When if mature, it will be an extension of the religion of science based on rigor rather than the wisdom of the founders of traditional religions. It will encompass, in addition to physical science, both social and life sciences. Science distinguishes itself from common sense by being a subtle knowledge, which is not accessible to the average person. Correct social and life science are orders of magnitude more complex than science and requires, respectively, rigor of mathematics and of logic. They are accessible to even fewer people. In fact, a person who has the knowledge of the creation of a human being should be considered a creator, by the definition of Post-Science religion.
Buddhism, in some quarters, just recently starts to deny that it is a religion. For those who are not familiar with Buddhism, it might sound strange, but Buddhism from the very beginning of its introduction to the world has always maintained that it can be changed in time to any form to fit the situation. So, we might introduce a Post-Science Buddhism, a religion or faith based on the concept of Self-Creationism.
The preoccupation of the traditional religions reflects the state of the mind and the vision of the times when the religions were founded. In particular, a common Buddhist teaching describes our society as "a bitter ocean without boundaries" as if the world is completely irrational and everyone will eventually realize that total abstention is the ultimate salvation. This conclusion checks with the discovery of the Infinite Spreadsheet by Post-Science Institute. The Infinite Spreadsheet is a law of nature, which is non-violable. Please allow me to further elucidate in the following paragraph.
A famous statement from the National Law Party claims that our social problems are caused by the violation of natural laws. Pardon me a moment ! For we have never seen gravitation being violated. The laws of nature, such as gravitation and the Infinite Spreadsheet, are never violated, by the very definition of a law of nature. They punish us when we do not behave without observing the constraints imposed on our behavior by the laws of nature. The laws of nature set limits on our freedom. Put it another way so there will be no misunderstanding of this fact, we are free to behave within the limits set by the laws of nature. So, where are the laws of nature in our Constitution ? And will man-made laws come into conflict with natural laws, if the man-made laws are not based on laws of nature, but on tradition of incomplete or finite reasoning ?
When all the earning estimates and prices are given to infinity in time, the final remaining variable, the rate of return, is determined by the mathematically derived law of nature known as the Infinite Spreadsheet. For the years 2000 to 2002, stock investors are punished by the law of nature of the Infinite Spreadsheet, which has determined a negative rate of return for most high-tech stocks, and even low-tech stocks of McDonald's, where you can still order a combo meal with the option of increasing the amount of fries and soda by an increase of price by a $.39 while the fee of 39 cents for extra fries and extra soda is evaluated by the consumer and if it falls under what they believe is affordable and of good quantity, they will pay the extra money under the deflationary economy, which is brought about by the Fed when it raised the interest rate in 2000 to shrink the money supply based on the law of nature described by the equation Price x Quantities = Velocity of Circulation of Money x Broad Money Supply empirically verified by Milton Friedman.
Now in the business world, the above might make partial sense to some and little sense to others. The reason is that not many people in the business world think with infinity in mind. They have the "Get it while it's hot" mentality which is one of the reasons why the economy is unstable and why inflation occurs. With the Infinite Spreadsheet, one can see the flaws of the current business market analyzed mostly by the finite spreadsheet, make smarter business decisions, and ultimately stabilize the economy.
What does McDonald's have to do with the Infinite Spreadsheet and Buddhism ? Whether a business sells hamburgers, stocks, or even socks, it is still a business and must sell something in order to make money. These rules of business also apply to the stock market; where the Infinite Spreadsheet is most useful. The Infinite Spreadsheet can be applied and used effectively in each and every business scenario. The McDonalds example is just to explain what makes the Infinite Spreadsheet great. The same formula (Price x Quantity = V x M2) can be applied to a small business transaction as well as an infinitely large market. Eating hamburgers is permitted in Post-Science Buddhism because our creator has designed us to eat meat.
In conclusion, no rational decision can be made without taking into consideration all the future consequences of the decision to infinity in time. The bitter ocean without boundary is equivalent to the finite spreadsheet for decision making, planning, and valuation. Post-Science Buddhism is the Religion of Self-Creation, which requires life science, and has advanced the consideration of the traditional religions from social science to life science while still retaining the rigor of the "Religion of Science" which often refutes the traditional religion. Thank you for reading my article. Emilio Vallejo 11/10/2002
Post- Science Buddhism
By Emilio Vallejo (Super Genius) [NOT] Edited [BUT COMMENTED] By HC
[Comment From Hugh Ching: Emilio is a student of exceptional creativity, which is an intelligence most closely related to life science or creation. I suggested that he look into religion and medicine, two fields in life science. He wrote the following, which lacks even scientific rigor, not to mention post-scientific rigor, but has been written without knowing that I had a personal experience of what he described in his article. My experience is described following his article below....(to be continued)]
I have dedicated my time these past few weeks to researching secrets, truths, facts, and fiction of the third-eye. The information gathered is both ancient and modern. My task is putting together the pieces of this Eternal puzzle.
The first piece of the puzzle is in our minds. We live in modern times but, we have yet to learn the full capabilities of our own being. Doctors have no clue as to what the appendix really was made for or does and until recently, a part of our own brains was dubbed useless too- the Pineal Gland. In my early college years, I was taught two things about the Pineal Gland: the Pineal Gland did nothing and it would not be covered on the final. William Robinson M.D. and Rene Gonzalez M.D. were also taught in school the Pineal Gland was useless too. (1) It is upsetting to learn that western science calls the unknown "useless".
Recent discoveries have shown that the Pineal Gland holds many important tasks. One of these tasks is producing Melatonin (Methoxytryptamine). Melatonin is in itself remarkable for it is found in every living thing ever studied on this Earth- algae, insects, amphibians, humans, etc. What is even more interesting is that Melatonin's molecular structure is identical where ever it is found.
Ancient religions have known that all creatures on this planet were made by one creator and are somehow connected to each other.
Modern day science has critically mapped the Pineal Gland as being located in the exact center of the brain.
Ancient religions believed that the "Third- Eye" was located in the center of our brains.
Modern science proved that in deep meditation or intense creativity both hemispheres of the brain are functioning with a single rhythm- as if both hemispheres are one.
Ancient religions promoted harmony and unity with the universe through meditation.
Modern science has proved deep meditation stimulates the Pineal Gland causing the secretion of Melatonin.
Ancient religions would communicate with a higher being through thought-communication, deep meditation, or prayer by using the "Third-Eye" (Pineal Gland).
Modern science has provided evidence that Glial cells found in the brain act like little transistors to magnify electrical signals many millions of times. Biologist Lyall Watson explains, "Theoretically, there is no reason why we should not be able to detect messages coming from similar organisms many miles away... and perhaps even from transmitters on the other side of the planet." (2)
Ancient studies of martial arts speak of ninja's communicating with each other through meditation.
Modern science explains that not all of the brain is used by humans yet, during deep meditation, it has been proven that 100% of the brain is used.
Ancient religions who channel the third eye during meditation say it is the "Gateway to perfect rest and harmony"
There have also been experiments that conclude: damage to the Pineal Gland leads to a shorter life span and research linking damaged Pineal Glands and disorders, i.e. schizophrenia, epilepsy, high blood pressure. (1)
In conclusion, the facts show that the third eye is not a phenomenon of fiction but more of biology. Regardless of personal opinion, one fact still remains: the full potential of the human brain is yet to be realized.
(1) Reiter, Russel J PHD and Robinson, Jo - "Melatonin- your body's natural wonderdrug" Bantam Books, NY 1995
(2) Watson, Lyall - "Lifetide: The Biology of the Unconscious" Simon and Schuster, NY
Hutchinson, Michael "Mega Brain- New tools & techniques for brain growth and mind expansion" Beech Tree Books, NY 1986
[Con't Hugh Ching's Comments: ... I took a nap around 4 to 6 PM on March 3, 2000. During my sleep, I dreamt a very rare phone call from Ta-You Wu. As I was telling him how happy to learn that he has recovered from his long-illness, he did not respond. When I woke up, I started to suspect something had happened and I immediately called his student Paul Lee. Lee told me that Wu has just passed away. Ta-You Wu died in Taiwan on March 4, 2000, which was March 3, 2000 in USA. I decided not to edit the following article as I originally promised Emilio, and, instead, I wrote the email to email replying to his article.]
I enjoyed reading your article, which is very well-written. To bring its rigor to satisfy post-science might take some time, but it can be a supporting evidence and a goal for post-science religion.
Is Glial cell same as glia cells and radial glia in the construction of the brain ? Science does not undersatnd complete automation and is not qualified even to begin life science research. The SSS patent is the start of life science, of which the brain is far out of our reach. Your article is very interesting, but for the sake of rigor, I would like to suggest that we try the following practical things based on logic only:
(1) Logically, how long is a life (span) ?
Post-Science: If it is possible to duplicate you exactly (body and mind), we can create you overnight and kill you when you are asleep and the world will not be any different next day. Life is only the few hours between unconsciousness (sleep). It is an illusion that life last 70+ years. It is logical to think that just the physical body is constructed to last 70+ years. The mind can live in another body and, thus, can live forever. The human life consists of the body and the spirit (ghost ?). The spirit can propagate from one mind to another in different body
(2) How to produce a permanent life ?
Post-Science: When a computer identifies itself as Emilio, it believes it is you. The continuation of your identity or self-conscious identity that you are Emilio is that which can make your life permanent. The identity is part of the spirit and should be able to be transferred through memory transfer. The wealthy people should consider this memory transfer project as their highest priority, because it will enable them to continue to enjoy their wealth through a continuous permanent lives. (You should approach rich people and ask them to fund such a research.) The human memory is a self-generated neural network, for which the Permanent Software has set a technical foundation.
(3) How to save a human identity in a computer ?
Post-Science: First we need to build an electronic brain with the same structure as the human memory. Then, we need to know how to transfer the memory from the human brain to the electronic brain, which should last forever. The memory of a rat can be transferred to another rat in experiments.
(4) How important is the permanent life ?
Post-Science: As described in (1), a life is only a few hours, for the spirit to live on, it is much simpler to just transfer ones knowledge to ones students of children. This is the reason that knowledge is the most important thing in the universe. For the body to live on, it is much simpler to just have children, who might even be better than the parents. Permanent life extension is really an ego trip, which I believe most rich people will find worthwhile.
(5) How to implement life science ?
Post-Science: After over 7 years, IBM is copying our self-generating ideas and Rockwell is copying the concept of complete automation, with neither understood the technical aspects. You might want to try to approach them for funding in cooperative research; they will not be able to understand fully by themselves.
Before leaving this most advance topic on life science, I hope you can keep the following basic rigor in post-science: The concept of deterministic condition.
In x+y=5, x can be anything, if y is not known. In most discussion outside of science, the results are not deterministic (#equations=#unknowns). This is absolutely unacceptable in post-science. Science often deals with constants of nature, which are just one equation and one unknown. The Infinite Spreadsheet has about 50 variables with the #equations always equal to the #unknowns. The last equation is supplied by the boundary condition of infinity. Elementary logic is two equations and two unknowns, true and false, or 0 and 1. Two conditions are (1) There are only two possibilities, and (2) Either True of False. For life science, logic is extended to general logic with N possibilities, where N is an integer.
You can repeat the above paragraph to all the human beings you meet. You should also try to follow its constraints in your future writing and thinking, except the exploratory matters, such as religion. I appreciate your creative contributions.
With best regards,
PS (6) Who do you thank most after recovering from an illness : (1) Your parents, (2) Your doctor, (3) Your creators ?
Post-Science Medicine: Your creators. Life science is still beyond the current doctors.
Research Notes On Infinite Spreadsheet Stock Valuation System
The connection between stock price, nominal interest rate and inflation is the most talked about topic among investors and borrowers alike. A study shows that the share of households investing in stock has increased almost ten percent in the six year period from 1989 to 1995 (Kennickell, Starr-McCluer, and Sundén 1997). However, excess volatility of stock cannot be explained by fundamental theories of financial economics. In this paper we have taken an unconventional approach to deal with this issue. Instead of using and expanding imperfect and inconsistent theories of economics we have introduced a new concept called Infinite Spreadsheet (Ching 2000) with time invariant variables. The idea is borrowed from physical science and modified for application in social science.
While the price of stock of a company is a time-variant quantity, the rate of return (calculated by using Infinite Spreadsheet) is an approximate time-invariant quantity, which reflects the slow-changing characteristics of the company. Plotted against time, the price of a given stock is a widely fluctuating curve, but the rate of return, relatively, is an approximately flat line, after averaging. Therefore, we concluded that the expected rate of return should be considered the only preferable solution to stock prediction.
1 Robert M. Solow and John B. Taylor, Inflation, Unemployment, and Monetary Ploicy, ed. Benjamin M. Friedman (Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press, 1999), p. viii
IMPERFECT SOCIAL SCIENCE
Until recently it has never been seriously contemplated that there is a serious problem with the constantly changing nature of economic theories - they are only useful to explain the past. One of the greatest economists of our time Benjamin M. Friedman1 admitted the imperfect nature of social science:
Macroeconomics is not a laboratory science. The basis for distinguishing among competing hypotheses is not replicated experimentation, but inference form limited actual experience that normally represents anything but a controlled experiment. Hence the same observed behavior of the economy - the same recessions, the same inflation, . . ., all happening at once - is subject to sometimes widely differing interpretations.
Perhaps this is why economics is made of concepts and theories rather than laws and rules. In an attempt to adequately explain and describe individual and social behavior the mathematicians and economists invented theories; but they are not adequate to explain the changing nature of human experience between places and times.
Price determination is one of the unsolved problems of economics. We have hundreds of theories but none can produce a deterministic, or non-arbitrary solutions to price determination. The following are the broad categories of existing economic theories on valuation and their defects:
I. Supply and Demand Model (Spatial Oriented Approaches - Present)
Defect: The temporal consideration is inadequate.
II. Income Approach (Temporal Oriented Approach - Future)
Defect: The average rates of return for different years are generally different. Therefore, different discount rates should be used generally for each and every year.
III. Market Comparison Approach and Time Series Analysis (Empirical Methods - Past)
Defect: The inputs for price determination should be approximate time-invariant variables, but price, involving infinite future, is a time variant. Empirical method is useful only for time-invariant variables and is useless for time variants.
IV. Cost Approaches (Construction, manufacturing, replacement, development or building cost)
Defect: Value depends on future benefits and losses, not the cost.
V. Factor Methods (Combination of Empirical and Statistical)
Defect: Weight factors can be obtained from sensitivity analysis when a correct method of valuation is available.
VI. Ethics (Subjective Methods and Others)
Defect: Only laws of nature in physical and social sciences must be obeyed.
The market is generally irrational. For example, the real estate market represents a mature and stable industry. It is ready to provide all the information needed by the deterministic method for analyses. When the information is inputted into and checked by the deterministic method, it is generally found to be mathematically inconsistent. For example, the price does not match the expected rate of investment return. The equation x + y = z with three variables, instead of the minimum of about 50 variables for the real estate market, is used for this example. What the market is saying, in essence, is that x = 2, y = 3, and z = 7 (which should be z = 2 + 3 = 5), while the law of mathematics dictates that the third variable, namely z, should be determined from the equation after the first two variables have been assumed. Similarly, the deterministic method specifies that the market or the investor can assume all but the last variable. A market which decides all the inputs without knowing the relationship of the inputs is irrational according to the deterministic solution to price. (Ching 2000)
During one of the several discussions with economist Kenneth Arrow, Hugh Ching asked one crucial question: "What is wrong with the method of discounted cash flow?" The discounted cash flow method or the present value calculation is incorrect because the average rate of return depends on the investment period which is generally different from the time to maturity or the actual holding period. The investment period should be a reasonably finite hypothetical time period chosen along with the investment return as the investment criterion. This error is made, for example, in the classical book Theory Of Value by Gerard Debreu2, where an infinite investment period is used in the calculation of the rate of return. The infinite investment period is unrealistic and will make market comparison difficult. In reality the investment period is almost never infinite. The book is still considered the most authoritative source in the field of the general economic equilibrium analysis, or the supply and demand model, and has provided a comprehensive picture of the price system in an infinite spatial and temporal domain. Unfortunately, the book emphasized the spatial dependence of the price and neglected the temporal dependence, which has been investigated in detail in the infinite spreadsheet.
Overvaluation and undervaluation is another problem in economics. As the inflation of the 1970s subsided and the expectation of rent and housing prices increases remained high in the early 1980s, the real estate market changed from under-priced to over-priced. The problem with the market price is that it may not respond correctly to economic changes. A market price comparison appraisal gives the market price before the price has fully responded to the economic changes. The determination of price and, in general, decision making should be based on future financial expectations not past market data. (Ching 2000)
2 Gerald Debreu, Theory of Value An Axiomatic Analysis of Economic Equilibrium, (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1959), p. 34
Epilogue by Hugh Ching, Founder of Post-Science
I was telling my Doctoral student C. Y. Lee "We live in an interesting time. Our society seems to be completely knowledgeless. Our knowledge is either correct but irrelevant or relevant but incorrect. Relevance depends on value determination, whose solution is still absent from our current knowledge. Post-science solution of value is a law of nature in social science, which even Little Puppy cannot ignore. Our society is irrational because rational decisions must be based on value determination." I continued:" Curiously, the best friends of post-science are the Number1 intellectuals from their respective countries, such as China's Ta-You Wu, Japan's T. L. Kunii, and India's C. V. Ramamoorthy, almost including Milton Friedman of USA. The Number1, not having to waste energy comparing with anyone else, they can devote their fully time to independent thinking. Even more interesting is that the Number 2 intellectuals tend to run away from post-science, after understanding it. After the very long period of being ignored by the mainstream intellectuals, post-science has the time to develop from solutions to software and finally to patents. Now, it seems to not only dominate, but also control, most of the relevant knowledge. However, its acceptance will depend on its applications." She seemed to be impressed, but wanted to know what time to go out to have dinner.
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